Use of the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and an oxygen requirement to predict disease severity in patients with COVID-19

We investigated the association between complete blood count, including neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) in combination with patient characteristics, and coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outcomes to identify the best prognostic indicator. We analyzed data of patients with confirmed COVID-19 from the nationwide database of the Japan COVID-19 Task Force between February 2020 and November 2021. A composite outcome was defined as the most severe condition, including noninvasive positive-pressure ventilation, high-flow nasal cannula, invasive mechanical ventilation, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, or death. Of 2,425 patients in the analysis, 472 (19.5%) experienced a composite outcome. NLR was the best predictor of composite outcomes, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.81, and a sensitivity and specificity of 72.3% and 75.7%, respectively, using a cut-off value of 5.04. The combination of NLR and an oxygen requirement on admission had the highest AUC (0.88). This simple combination may help identify patients at risk of progression to severe disease.

Urinary L-Type Fatty Acid-Binding Protein Predicts Oxygen Demand of COVID-19 in Initially Mild Cases

IMPORTANCE: Early detection of illness trajectory in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infected patients is crucial for patients and healthcare workers. An effective, noninvasive approach, with simple measurement for decision-making, is necessary in a pandemic to discriminate between high- and low-risk patients, even though both groups may exhibit mild symptoms in the beginning. OBJECTIVES: To predict COVID-19 disease severity within 10 days, distinguishing cases that will progress to moderate or severe versus mild, patient urinary L-type fatty acid-binding protein (L-FABP) was assayed within 4 days of receiving a diagnosis. The study also examined whether L-FABP point of care (POC) test is helpful in risk screening. DESIGN: Symptomatic subjects who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 and were hospitalized were prospectively enrolled at the National Center for Global Health and Medicine (NCGM), Yamanashi Prefectural Central Hospital (YPCH), and Sinai Hospital in Maryland. The outcome of each case was evaluated 7 days after admission and the diagnostic performance of L-FABP was assessed. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Subjects were treated for COVID-19 at public healthcare centers in Japan from January 31, 2020, to January 31, 2021, to NCGM, YPCH, and at Sinai Hospital in Baltimore, MD, during the same period. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary outcome was to determine whether urinary L-FABP within 48 hours of admission can predict the patient's severity of COVID-19 1 week later. We obtained demographic data, information on clinical symptoms, radiographic images, and laboratory data. RESULTS: Diagnostic performance was assessed using receiver operating characteristic analysis. Of the 224 participants in the study, 173 initially had a mild form of COVID-19. The area under the curve (AUC) for a severe outcome was 93.5%. L-FABP POC risk prediction of a severe outcome had an AUC of 88.9%. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Urinary L-FABP can predict patient risk of COVID-19 illness severity. L-FABP POC is implementable for patient management. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04681040).

Urinary L-Type Fatty Acid-Binding Protein Predicts Oxygen Demand of COVID-19 in Initially Mild Cases.

Early detection of illness trajectory in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infected patients is crucial for patients and healthcare workers. An effective, noninvasive approach, with simple measurement for decision-making, is necessary in a pandemic to discriminate between high- and low-risk patients, even though both groups may exhibit mild symptoms in the beginning. OBJECTIVES: To predict COVID-19 disease severity within 10 days, distinguishing cases that will progress to moderate or severe versus mild, patient urinary L-type fatty acid-binding protein (L-FABP) was assayed within 4 days of receiving a diagnosis. The study also examined whether L-FABP point of care (POC) test is helpful in risk screening. DESIGN: Symptomatic subjects who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 and were hospitalized were prospectively enrolled at the National Center for Global Health and Medicine (NCGM), Yamanashi Prefectural Central Hospital (YPCH), and Sinai Hospital in Maryland. The outcome of each case was evaluated 7 days after admission and the diagnostic performance of L-FABP was assessed. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Subjects were treated for COVID-19 at public healthcare centers in Japan from January 31, 2020, to January 31, 2021, to NCGM, YPCH, and at Sinai Hospital in Baltimore, MD, during the same period. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary outcome was to determine whether urinary L-FABP within 48 hours of admission can predict the patient's severity of COVID-19 1 week later. We obtained demographic data, information on clinical symptoms, radiographic images, and laboratory data. RESULTS: Diagnostic performance was assessed using receiver operating characteristic analysis. Of the 224 participants in the study, 173 initially had a mild form of COVID-19. The area under the curve (AUC) for a severe outcome was 93.5%. L-FABP POC risk prediction of a severe outcome had an AUC of 88.9%. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Urinary L-FABP can predict patient risk of COVID-19 illness severity. L-FABP POC is implementable for patient management. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04681040).

Impact of accumulative smoking exposure and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease on COVID-19 outcomes: report based on findings from the Japan COVID-19 task force.

OBJECTIVES: Smoking and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are risk factors for severe COVID-19. However, limited literature exists on the effect of COPD and smoking on COVID-19 outcomes. This study examined the impact of smoking exposure in pack-years (PY) and COPD on COVID-19 outcomes among smokers in Japan. METHODS: The study included 1266 smokers enrolled by the Japan COVID-19 task force between February 2020 and December 2021. PY and COPD status was self-reported by patients. Patients were classified into the non-COPD (n = 1151) and COPD (n = 115) groups; the non-COPD group was further classified into <10 PY (n = 293), 10-30 PY (n = 497), and >30 PY (n = 361). The study outcome was the need for invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV). RESULTS: The incidence of IMV increased with increasing PY and was highest in the COPD group (<10 PY = 7.8%, 10-30 PY = 12.3%, >30 PY = 15.2%, COPD = 26.1%; P <0.001). A significant association was found for IMV requirement in the >30 PY and COPD groups through univariate (odds ratio [OR]: >30 PY = 2.11, COPD = 4.14) and multivariate (OR: >30 PY = 2.38; COPD = 7.94) analyses. Increasing PY number was also associated with increased IMV requirement in patients aged <65 years. CONCLUSION: Cumulative smoking exposure was positively associated with COVID-19 outcomes in smokers.

Response to COVID-19 vaccine is reduced in patients with inflammatory bowel disease, but improved with additional dose.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination is recommended for patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD); however, suppressed immune responses have been reported for fully vaccinated patients under immunosuppressive therapy, mainly from Western countries. We prospectively analyzed antibody titers of IBD patients in Asia induced by two-dose and additional dose of messengerRNA COVID-19 vaccine. METHODS: After measuring high-affinity antibody titers, factors associated with antibody titers were identified by multiple regression analyses using the following covariates: sex, age (≥60 or <60 years), disease type (Crohn's disease or ulcerative colitis), vaccine type (BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273), time from second/third vaccination, molecular-targeted agent (anti-tumor necrosis factor [TNF] agents, ustekinumab, vedolizumab, tofacitinib, or no molecular-targeted agents), thiopurine, steroid, and 5-aminosalicylic acid. RESULTS: Among 409 patients analyzed, mean titer was 1316.7 U/mL (SD, 1799.3); 403 (98.5%) were judged to be seropositive (≥0.8 U/mL), and 389 (95.1%) had neutralizing antibodies (≥15 U/mL). After the third vaccination, mean titer raised up to 21 123.8 U/mL (SD, 23 474.5); all 179 were seropositive, and 178 (99.4%) had neutralizing antibodies. In 248 patients with genetic data, there was no difference in mean titer after two/third doses between carriers and non-carriers of HLA-A24 associated with severe disease during COVID-19 infection. A multiple regression analyses using covariates revealed that older age, vaccine type (BNT162b2), time from second/third dose, anti-TNF agent, tofacitinib, and thiopurine were independently associated with lower antibody titers. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings further support the recommendation for COVID-19 vaccination in patients under immunosuppressive therapy, especially additional third dose for patients receiving anti-TNF agents and/or thiopurine or tofacitinib.

Impact of upper and lower respiratory symptoms on COVID-19 outcomes: a multicenter retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory symptoms are associated with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outcomes. However, the impacts of upper and lower respiratory symptoms on COVID-19 outcomes in the same population have not been compared. The objective of this study was to characterize upper and lower respiratory symptoms and compare their impacts on outcomes of hospitalized COVID-19 patients. METHODS: This was a multicenter, retrospective cohort study; the database from the Japan COVID-19 Task Force was used. A total of 3314 COVID-19 patients were included in the study, and the data on respiratory symptoms were collected. The participants were classified according to their respiratory symptoms (Group 1: no respiratory symptoms, Group 2: only upper respiratory symptoms, Group 3: only lower respiratory symptoms, and Group 4: both upper and lower respiratory symptoms). The impacts of upper and lower respiratory symptoms on the clinical outcomes were compared. The primary outcome was the percentage of patients with poor clinical outcomes, including the need for oxygen supplementation via high-flow oxygen therapy, mechanical ventilation, and extracorporeal membrane oxygenation or death. RESULTS: Of the 3314 COVID-19 patients, 605, 1331, 1229, and 1149 were classified as Group 1, Group 2, Group 3, and Group 4, respectively. In univariate analysis, patients in Group 2 had the best clinical outcomes among all groups (odds ratio [OR]: 0.21, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.11-0.39), while patients in Group 3 had the worst outcomes (OR: 3.27, 95% CI: 2.43-4.40). Group 3 patients had the highest incidence of pneumonia, other complications due to secondary infections, and thrombosis during the clinical course. CONCLUSIONS: Upper and lower respiratory tract symptoms had vastly different impacts on the clinical outcomes of COVID-19.

Discovery of a novel HLA-B*40 allele, HLA-B*40:02:01:30 in a Japanese individual.

HLA-B*40:02:01:30 differs from HLA-B*40:02:01:01 by one nucleotide in 3'UTR at position 2869.

Genetic association of IL17 and the importance of ABO blood group antigens in saliva to COVID-19.

The outbreak of COVID-19 caused by infection with SARS-CoV-2 virus has become a worldwide pandemic, and the number of patients presenting with respiratory failure is rapidly increasing in Japan. An international meta-analysis has been conducted to identify genetic factors associated with the onset and severity of COVID-19, but these factors have yet to be fully clarified. Here, we carried out genomic analysis based on a genome-wide association study (GWAS) in Japanese COVID-19 patients to determine whether genetic factors reported to be associated with the onset or severity of COVID-19 in the international meta-GWAS are replicated in the Japanese population, and whether new genetic factors exist. Although no significant genome-wide association was detected in the Japanese GWAS, an integrated analysis with the international meta-GWAS identified for the first time the involvement of the IL17A/IL17F gene in the severity of COVID-19. Among nine genes reported in the international meta-GWAS as genes involved in the onset of COVID-19, the association of FOXP4-AS1, ABO, and IFNAR2 genes was replicated in the Japanese population. Moreover, combined analysis of ABO and FUT2 genotypes revealed that the presence of oral AB antigens was significantly associated with the onset of COVID-19. FOXP4-AS1 and IFNAR2 were also significantly associated in the integrated analysis of the Japanese GWAS and international meta-GWAS when compared with severe COVID-19 cases and the general population. This made it clear that these two genes were also involved in not only the onset but also the severity of COVID-19. In particular, FOXP4-AS1 was not found to be associated with the severity of COVID-19 in the international meta-GWAS, but an integrated analysis with the Japanese GWAS revealed an association with severity. Individuals with the SNP risk allele found between IL17A and IL17F had significantly lower mRNA expression levels of IL17F, suggesting that activation of the innate immune response by IL17F may play an important role in the severity of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

An Association Study of HLA with the Kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 Spike Specific IgG Antibody Responses to BNT162b2 mRNA Vaccine.

BNT162b2, an mRNA-based SARS-CoV-2 vaccine (Pfizer-BioNTech, New York, NY, USA), is one of the most effective COVID-19 vaccines and has been approved by more than 130 countries worldwide. However, several studies have reported that the COVID-19 vaccine shows high interpersonal variability in terms of humoral and cellular responses, such as those with respect to SARS-CoV-2 spike protein immunoglobulin (Ig)G, IgA, IgM, neutralizing antibodies, and CD4+ and CD8+ T cells. The objective of this study is to investigate the kinetic changes in anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike IgG (IgG-S) profiles and adverse reactions and their associations with HLA profiles (HLA-A, -C, -B, -DRB1, -DQA1, -DQB1, -DPA1 and -DPB1) among 100 hospital workers from the Center Hospital of the National Center for Global Health and Medicine (NCGM), Tokyo, Japan. DQA1*03:03:01 (p = 0.017; Odd ratio (OR) 2.80, 95%confidence interval (CI) 1.05-7.25) was significantly associated with higher IgG-S production after two doses of BNT162b2, while DQB1*06:01:01:01 (p = 0.028, OR 0.27, 95%CI 0.05-0.94) was significantly associated with IgG-S declines after two doses of BNT162b2. No HLA alleles were significantly associated with either local symptoms or fever. However, C*12:02:02 (p = 0.058; OR 0.42, 95%CI 0.15-1.16), B*52:01:01 (p = 0.031; OR 0.38, 95%CI 0.14-1.03), DQA1*03:02:01 (p = 0.028; OR 0.39, 95%CI 0.15-1.00) and DPB1*02:01:02 (p = 0.024; OR 0.45, 95%CI 0.21-0.97) appeared significantly associated with protection against systemic symptoms after two doses of BNT162b2 vaccination. Further studies with larger sample sizes are clearly warranted to determine HLA allele associations with the production and long-term sustainability of IgG-S after COVID-19 vaccination.

Clinical Characteristics of Patients with Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19): Preliminary Baseline Report of Japan COVID-19 Task Force, a Nationwide Consortium to Investigate Host Genetics of COVID-19.

BACKGROUND AND DESIGN: The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic is having a devastating effect worldwide. Host genome differences between populations may influence the severity of COVID-19. The Japan COVID-19 Task Force is conducting host genome analysis of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 from more than 70 institutions nationwide in Japan. This report describes the clinical characteristics of patients enrolled to date. RESULTS: The median (interquartile range) age of the 1674 patients included in the analysis was 59 (45-71) years, and more than half of the patients (66.2%) were male. Less than half of the patients (41.2%) had severe disease. The case fatality rate was 3.2%. CONCLUSIONS: Since this is a hospital-based study, the number of severe cases was relatively high, but the case fatality rate was relatively low, when compared to that of other countries. In the future, we will continue to enroll patients and conduct genome analyses of patients with COVID-19.

HLA-A*11:01:01:01, HLA-C*12:02:02:01-HLA-B*52:01:02:02, Age and Sex Are Associated With Severity of Japanese COVID-19 With Respiratory Failure.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus causing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was announced as an outbreak by the World Health Organization (WHO) in January 2020 and as a pandemic in March 2020. The majority of infected individuals have experienced no or only mild symptoms, ranging from fully asymptomatic cases to mild pneumonic disease. However, a minority of infected individuals develop severe respiratory symptoms. The objective of this study was to identify susceptible HLA alleles and clinical markers that can be used in risk prediction model for the early identification of severe COVID-19 among hospitalized COVID-19 patients. A total of 137 patients with mild COVID-19 (mCOVID-19) and 53 patients with severe COVID-19 (sCOVID-19) were recruited from the Center Hospital of the National Center for Global Health and Medicine (NCGM), Tokyo, Japan for the period of February-August 2020. High-resolution sequencing-based typing for eight HLA genes was performed using next-generation sequencing. In the HLA association studies, HLA-A*11:01:01:01 [Pc = 0.013, OR = 2.26 (1.27-3.91)] and HLA-C*12:02:02:01-HLA-B*52:01:01:02 [Pc = 0.020, OR = 2.25 (1.24-3.92)] were found to be significantly associated with the severity of COVID-19. After multivariate analysis controlling for other confounding factors and comorbidities, HLA-A*11:01:01:01 [P = 3.34E-03, OR = 3.41 (1.50-7.73)], age at diagnosis [P = 1.29E-02, OR = 1.04 (1.01-1.07)] and sex at birth [P = 8.88E-03, OR = 2.92 (1.31-6.54)] remained significant. The area under the curve of the risk prediction model utilizing HLA-A*11:01:01:01, age at diagnosis, and sex at birth was 0.772, with sensitivity of 0.715 and specificity of 0.717. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first article that describes associations of HLA alleles with COVID-19 at the 4-field (highest) resolution level. Early identification of potential sCOVID-19 could help clinicians prioritize medical utility and significantly decrease mortality from COVID-19.